Expressing Speculation & Probability

A graded scale: devoir for confident inference, futur for present guesses, il se peut que for weak possibility

French grades certainty across three different tools rather than one word, and English actually tracks a very similar gradient with its own modal verbs: devoir + infinitif for confident inference (il doit être fatigué) lines up with English 'must' ('he must be tired', based on evidence); the futur simple can speculate about the present itself (il sera 15h, 'it's probably 3pm' — a genuinely French-specific use of a 'future' tense for a present guess, sometimes called the futur de conjecture), which English handles differently, more often with 'must' or 'will' plus a hedge ('it'll be about 3pm now'); and il se peut que + subjonctif marks weaker, open possibility, matching English 'might/may/could' ('it might rain tomorrow'). The one place the two systems really diverge: English 'might' needs no verb-form change at all, while French il se peut que forces the subjonctif in the clause that follows — a reminder to keep checking the trigger list from Lesson 40 rather than assuming a weak-possibility English modal translates into plain French indicative.